There has been growing concern over the Bitcoin bull run risk, which is centered around conflicting on-chain signals. Whale wallet counts are decreasing while the price is increasing.
According to Alphractal data and analysis from crypto analyst Joao Wedson, this is the same pattern seen before the 2021 peak. Wedson says the current cycle could end by October if institutions don’t offset the divergence.
Whales Retreat but Bitcoin Price Holds
Reports say addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have fallen below 90, which is a major-unit wallet decline that analysts interpret as reduced conviction among the largest holders. However, as at the time of this writing, Bitcoin is still at $118,706, showing price resilience even as the big holders are retreating. Realized-cap impulse is also still positive, showing long-term demand.
Institutional Flows Not Slowing Down
Again, public companies are still accumulating aggressively. MicroStrategy reportedly added $2.46 billion in new Bitcoin, now holding $74.18 billion, while Mara Holding added $950 million just recently. Together, they hold 4.28% of all BTC. MicroStrategy alone holds 2.894%.
Bitcoin spot ETFs are also drawing large inflows. AUM is at $151.28 billion, and July net purchases are way ahead of sales ($4.83B in vs. $541.6M out).
A rising Whale vs Retail Ratio means bigger investors are buying while retail is cautious. While whales are accumulating, market leverage is low. The funding rate is low and the leverage ratio is 0.25. This divergence might store some power, meaning breakout potential once sentiment shifts.
Scenarios for Next Bitcoin Move
| Scenario | Possible Outcome |
| Scenario One (Correction by October) | If whales disengage and institutional flows dry up, Alphractal’s fractal models point to a top by October and then a multi-quarter pullback. |
| Scenario Two (Structural Support) | ETF and corporate flows provide structural support. If accumulation holds and the realized cap impulse is high, the bull run might extend to late 2025 or early 2026. |
| Scenario Three (Momentum Rotation Out) | Retail inaction and whales diverging could mean rotation into altcoins or a long consolidation ahead, keeping BTC steady but uninspiring. |
What to Watch Now
Wedson looks at large-wallet cohorts as a top indicator; if they continue to decline, it means less confidence. Rekt Capital says the cycle could follow the same pattern as before and top around October. But other analysts say institutional adoption and ETF flows don’t follow traditional timelines.
Realized-cap impulse is still positive, seen as a proxy for long-term conviction, so unless capital shifts suddenly, it remains firm.
The Bitcoin bull run risk thesis is real but faces pushback from capital flow realities. Institutional engagement is growing while whale behavior is mixed. If capital keeps flowing and sentiment shifts gradually to alignment, Bitcoin can bypass early-cycle exhaustions. Otherwise, fractal models might be right.
Conclusion
Based on the latest research, the Bitcoin bull run risk is in a delicate balance. On-chain divergence suggests the risk is growing and points to an October peak. But strong ETF flows and corporate buying helps with structural support.
Whether this cycle ends on schedule or extends to 2026 depends on if institutional demand can offset waning fractals.
Investors are advised to watch whale behavior, ETF demand, on-chain realized cap dynamics and macro sentiment as policy tightens for clearer signals.
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Summary
Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson says the Bitcoin bull run risk may increase as whale addresses decline even as the price holds. Whales with over 10,000 BTC have dropped below 90, the same as before the 2021 peak. But institutional flows are strong; public companies and spot ETFs are injecting billions monthly. Whale vs Retail divergence and steady realized-cap impulse means demand is strong.
FAQs
What does falling whale wallet count mean?
Fewer large-holding Bitcoin addresses mean less conviction from big holders, as previously before market tops.
How do institutional inflows mitigate risk?
ETFs and corporate buying inject capital and provide structural support even when whale sentiment is weak.
Why the October peak?
Analysts citing halving-based fractals say cycles often top around 550 days post-halving; October is the projected peak.
Glossary
Whale wallet – A wallet holding very large amounts of Bitcoin, above 10,000 BTC.
Realized cap impulse – A metric that measures total capital entering Bitcoin, reflects long-term demand.
Whale vs Retail Ratio – Compares accumulation between big holders and retail, used to detect sentiment divergence.
Fractal cycle model – A historical pattern of Bitcoin’s cycles based on time since halving, used to forecast peak.
Sources
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