Bitcoin’s market cycles have traditionally followed a halving-driven four-year cycle, but one industry heavyweight feels the crypto market is going beyond this narrative. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently made headlines by forecasting a significant Bitcoin rally in 2026, defying the generally held idea that Bitcoin’s fortunes rise and fall solely due to halving occurrences.
Hougan shared his optimistic outlook: “I predict 2026 is a good year. I believe we’re in for a good few years,” he added, predicting consistent growth over the next two years thanks to institutional capital, regulatory certainty, and mature market infrastructure.
Breaking the Mold: Why the Four-Year Cycle No Longer Rules
The classic Bitcoin cycle, which is driven by the quadrennial supply halving, has typically set the tone for price peaks and declines. However, Hougan feels this approach has lost much of its significance. He stated that the significance of the halving reduces with each occurrence, claiming that institutional adoption and capital flows now have more weight.
“The halving is still important,” Hougan said. “but its impact is half as important as it was four years ago, and half as important as it was eight years ago.”
This approach is consistent with the overall market development. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 opened the door for ordinary investors, while companies and pension funds started allocating to Bitcoin at unprecedented volumes. According to analysts, these structural developments have resulted in new pricing dynamics that differ from the traditional retail-driven boom-and-bust cycles.
Bitcoin Rally: Institutional Power and Regulatory Milestones
Hougan’s argument continues to rely heavily on institutional acceptance. The recent spike in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, along with the expanding presence of businesses holding Bitcoin in their treasuries, has dramatically increased market liquidity.
Hougan also cited legal improvements such as the United States’ GENIUS Act, which provided a clearer structure for stablecoins and increased investor trust in the larger cryptocurrency sector.
“With clearer guardrails, institutional investors feel more comfortable entering the space,” Hougan told. These characteristics, along with a positive macroeconomic outlook, may propel Bitcoin to sustained growth far into 2026 and beyond.
Steady Boom vs. Super-Cycle
Hougan said that although the Bitcoin rally would likely rebound, it will not necessarily resemble a euphoric “super-cycle.” Instead, he forecasts a more gradual rise as capital inflows progressively increase. “We’re not calling for Bitcoin at $500,000 overnight,” he informed me. “But the foundations are in place for a strong, sustainable market.”
This varies from other experts, who continue to predict cyclical peaks around late 2025. Rekt Capital, a popular cryptocurrency analyst, has predicted that the Bitcoin rally would reach its peak in October 2025 if historical trends continue.
Risks on the Horizon
While optimistic, Hougan cautioned about possible weaknesses. He expressed worry about the expanding number of Bitcoin treasury businesses, which borrow extensively to acquire BTC. “Leverage is a double-edged sword,” he added, warning that aggressive measures might worsen market downturns if not handled properly.
Advertisement Banner
Ki Young Ju agreed that typical cycle patterns are receding, but he also recognized the possibility of “old whales selling to new whales,” causing unanticipated volatility.
Conclusion
Hougan’s estimate marks a change in how market leaders see Bitcoin long-term development. By calling the four-year cycle outmoded, he has highlighted institutional adoption, macroeconomic dynamics, and regulatory clarity as new drivers of Bitcoin’s price.
If his prognosis is correct, 2026 might usher in a new age for Bitcoin, one marked by persistent, controlled growth that matches the mature nature of the crypto industry, rather than halving-driven surges.
FAQs
Q1: What is the four-year Bitcoin cycle?
The four-year cycle is a historical pattern tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce mining rewards every four years, impacting supply and prices.
Q2: Why does Matt Hougan believe the cycle is dead?
He argues that institutional capital, ETFs, and regulatory clarity have shifted the market’s primary drivers away from halving events.
Q3: Does this mean Bitcoin will only go up?
No. Hougan predicts a steady boom, not a speculative super-cycle. Volatility and corrections will still occur.
Q4: What could derail the 2026 rally?
Excessive leverage among Bitcoin treasury companies and macroeconomic shocks remain potential risks.
Glossary
Bitcoin Halving: An event that cuts the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks in half, reducing supply.
GENIUS Act: U.S. legislation that set clear regulations for stablecoins and improved institutional confidence.
Spot Bitcoin ETF: An exchange-traded fund that directly holds Bitcoin, enabling institutional and retail access.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Firms that acquire and hold Bitcoin as part of their balance sheet strategy.
Sources
The price predictions and financial analysis presented on this website are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that prices can fluctuate significantly and unpredictably.
You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The Bit Journal does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided in the price predictions, and we will not be held liable for any losses incurred as a result of relying on this information.
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, including the risk of significant losses. Always invest responsibly and within your means.
For advertising inquiries, please email . [email protected] or Telegram
