Why is Bitwise Holding the Line on $200K Bitcoin Even as Economic Uncertainty Grows

In spite of rising macroeconomic instability and mounting global trade disputes, Bitwise Asset Management is doubling down on its ambitious prediction that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 before the end of 2025. In a blog post published on April 9, 2025, Matt Hougan, the firm’s Chief Investment Officer, reinforced his December outlook, suggesting the current macro backdrop could serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin’s long-term price growth. 

Tariff Shock: How U.S. Trade Policy May Benefit Bitcoin

With the Trump administration reintroducing aggressive tariffs on key trading partners, economists are warning of a broader disruption to global trade. On April 7, White House economic adviser Stephen Miran openly criticized the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, arguing that it has damaged domestic manufacturing and skewed global trade.

According to Hougan, this shift in rhetoric and policy may catalyze Bitcoin’s rise. He argues that the weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) which has dropped over 7% since January, creates favorable conditions for BTC.

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited an inverse correlation with the dollar, gaining strength as the greenback declines. By potentially devaluing the dollar, the U.S. may inadvertently push capital into decentralized assets, which are seen as stores of value immune to political manipulation.

Multipolar Reserve Models: Bitcoin and Gold as Safe Havens

In the same blog post, Hougan stated that he anticipates a move away from reliance on a single global reserve currency. In this new paradigm, Bitcoin and gold could take center stage as neutral, decentralized, and inflation-resistant alternatives to fiat currencies.

Recent reports lend credibility to this view. As per VanEck, countries like China and Russia have started experimenting with Bitcoin-based settlements for international trade, including energy deals, potentially signaling a shift away from U.S. dollar dependence. Should these trends accelerate, Bitcoin could gain increased geopolitical relevance, not just as an investment, but as a settlement asset.

Market Reactions and Analysis

Market analysts widely acknowledge that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro-sensitive asset. According to Bitwise, the compounded effect of a declining DXY, increased geopolitical risk, and central bank uncertainty creates a bullish environment for BTC.

Other experts like Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believe a yuan devaluation could further accelerate Bitcoin adoption. Drawing parallels to 2013 and 2015, when capital flight from China triggered crypto rallies. Hayes argues that similar dynamics may re-emerge if trade disputes worsen.

While such scenarios remain speculative, they reflect growing consensus around crypto’s role as a hedge against systemic currency risk.

Bitcoin’s Recent Volatility: Correction or Setup for Rally?

Following the recent “Black Monday” crypto crash, which reportedly saw total liquidations exceed $1.36 billion, many investors are questioning whether the bull cycle has already peaked. However, data suggests such corrections are common in long-term uptrends.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,800, recovering from a 32% drop since its January peak. According to Bitwise, this is consistent with past bull market behavior, where stronger rallies followed 30–40% retracements. In Bitwise’s view, the current market volatility does not invalidate its year-end target but rather strengthens the setup for long-term gains.

Conclusion

Despite global economic instability, a sharp rise in market volatility, and geopolitical shifts, Bitwise Asset Management remains resolute in its $200,000 Bitcoin price prediction for 2025. As U.S. policy leans toward a weaker dollar and alternative reserve strategies gain traction internationally, Bitcoin could emerge as a key beneficiary. Analysts see this as that which may legitimize BTC as both a macro hedge and an integral part of the global financial future.

Whether Bitcoin hits $200,000 or not, one thing is clear: its role in the global economy is rapidly evolving.

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FAQs

What is Bitwise’s current Bitcoin price forecast?

Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, reaffirmed by CIO Matt Hougan.

Why could U.S. trade policy impact Bitcoin?

A weaker U.S. dollar, potentially driven by new tariffs and economic policy shifts, may boost Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative store of value.

Are other countries using Bitcoin for trade?

VanEck reports that China and Russia have reportedly begun using BTC for energy-related transactions.

What is the DXY, and how does it relate to Bitcoin?

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures USD’s strength against major currencies. Historically, Bitcoin rises when DXY falls.

Glossary

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): An index tracking the USD’s value relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Often inversely correlated with Bitcoin.

Bitwise Asset Management: A prominent crypto investment firm known for offering index funds and conducting macro research.

Tariff: A government-imposed tax on imported goods. High tariffs can disrupt trade and impact currency values.

Capital Flight: A large-scale exit of assets or capital from a country, often due to economic or political instability.

Reserve Currency: A foreign currency held in significant quantities by governments and institutions, used in international trade.

References

Bitwise

Cointelegraph

White House Remarks by Stephen Miran 

VanEck

TradingView – DXY Index Performance