The crypto industry is buzzing with speculation as Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas reveal their insights on potential Solana (SOL), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs. Their projections indicate that Litecoin ETFs have the highest likelihood of approval at 90%, while XRP ETFs face the greatest uncertainty due to the ongoing Ripple-SEC lawsuit.
ETF Approval Odds: SOL, DOGE, LTC, and XRP
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart stated that he and Eric Balchunas have assigned relatively high approval probabilities to Solana, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and XRP ETFs. According to their analysis, Solana ETFs have a 70% approval chance by 2025, while Dogecoin and XRP ETFs have probabilities of 75% and 65%, respectively.
Given its classification as a non-security, Litecoin ETF remains the top contender for SEC approval. Analysts previously predicted that the SEC would likely approve a Litecoin ETF first, with discussions already underway between the agency and Canary Capital. So far, Canary, Grayscale, and CoinShares have submitted applications for a Litecoin ETF.
Why Dogecoin ETFs Have an Edge Over XRP ETFs
Interestingly, analysts believe Dogecoin ETFs might have a better approval chance than Solana and XRP ETFs. They argue that the SEC is more likely to classify Dogecoin as a commodity, similar to Litecoin, rather than a security. However, Solana ETFs maintain an advantage over Dogecoin ETFs due to the SEC’s acceptance of 19b-4 filings for Solana.
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XRP ETF Faces the Biggest Hurdle
The biggest obstacle for XRP ETF approval remains the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. Bloomberg analysts emphasize that the SEC is unlikely to approve an XRP ETF until the legal battle concludes. Legal expert Jeremy Hogan recently stated that the Ripple case could end before any XRP ETF gets the green light. Similarly, Marc Fagel, a former SEC attorney, speculated that the lawsuit could be resolved if Paul Atkins takes over as SEC Chairman.
Paul Atkins’ SEC Nomination Could Delay ETF Decisions
Paul Atkins’ potential appointment as SEC Chairman depends on Senate approval, which could take time. FOX journalist Eleanor Terrett noted that the Senate must confirm several key officials before Atkins’ nomination is considered. Historical trends suggest this process could be lengthy; for instance, former SEC Chair Gary Gensler was nominated by Joe Biden in January 2021 but wasn’t confirmed until April 2021. Likewise, Jay Clayton, Gensler’s predecessor, waited several months before securing Senate approval.
With regulatory uncertainties looming, crypto investors eagerly await updates on ETF approvals, as they could significantly impact the market trajectory.
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