Bitcoin’s rise toward $100,000 depends greatly on balancing short-term holder demand with long-term profit-taking. The Bitfinex Alpha report analysis highlights key factors driving its performance and shaping December’s outlook.
Bitcoin Ends November with Record Close
Bitcoin capped November with a record monthly close at $96,506, posting a 37.3% gain despite an 8.64% intra-week dip. This marked its second-best monthly performance of the year, bouncing back strongly from a brief decline to $90,911 on November 26.
The recovery highlights Bitcoin’s resilience, boosting investor confidence as the cryptocurrency approaches December with momentum. Historical data from halving years shows an average 38.86% price increase, supporting a bullish outlook. However, December brings challenges, including heightened volatility from the year’s largest options expiry, which could drive significant short-term price swings. Traders and investors face a critical period ahead.
How Will Short-Term Uncertainty Impact Bitcoin’s Medium-Term Optimism?
While Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects remain positive, short-term risks persist, driven by long-term holders (LTHs) selling into rising demand. Since LTH supply peaked in September, about 508,990 BTC has been distributed, a significant figure though smaller than the 934,000 BTC sold during March’s rally to $73,666.
Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) are nearing a cycle high, holding over 3.25 million BTC. Historically, bull markets gain momentum when STH supply exceeds pre-halving cycle highs, suggesting further growth potential if demand remains robust. Balancing LTH distribution and STH accumulation will be critical in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory
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Can BTC Break $100,000 Amid LTH Selling and Market Dynamics?
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) currently stands at 2.6, below the critical threshold of 3 often associated with market tops. This indicates that while LTHs are taking profits, the peak of their selling phase has not yet arrived.
This leaves room for continued price momentum, provided STHs and new buyers can absorb the supply. If short-term demand outweighs LTH selling, Bitcoin could break the $100,000 psychological barrier sooner than anticipated. December brings both opportunities and risks for this crypto. While the halving-year momentum and strong November performance suggest potential for further growth, volatility is expected to remain a key factor.
The upcoming options expiry and possible profit-taking could trigger short-term price fluctuations, testing the market’s ability to absorb LTH supply. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and monitor supply and demand closely. If demand from STHs and new buyers remains strong, Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 becomes more likely. However, without sufficient demand, it could experience additional pullbacks before resuming its rise.
Meanwhile, Sora Ventures has unveiled a $150 million Bitcoin fund targeting companies across Asia. The initiative aims to help firms adopt this crypto as a treasury reserve asset, inspired by MicroStrategy’s success. With a focus on markets like Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea, the fund seeks to tailor strategies to regional regulations. Metaplanet’s 1,000% stock surge highlights the potential of this approach.
Beyond treasury solutions, the platform invests in Bitcoin education and infrastructure, supporting broader adoption. Moreover, it aims to expand the fund’s reach, promising significant financial benefits for participating companies.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 is filled with both promise and uncertainty. Strong momentum and historical trends from halving years provide optimism, but the balance between LTH distribution and STH demand will be crucial. For traders and investors, December will be a pivotal month. Managing risk and staying focused on long-term goals will be essential in navigating the volatility and capitalizing on Bitcoin’s growth potential — possibly marking the next milestone in its historic rise.
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The price predictions and financial analysis presented on this website are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that prices can fluctuate significantly and unpredictably.
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