Dogecoin Slips, OM Recovers, Bitcoin Steadies—How Crypto Reacts to Recession Odds

Following the latest Market reports, Dogecoin is down almost 3% over the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin holds steady at $85,000. Investor sentiment is torn between easing tariff tensions and the growing US recession fears. Despite the calm on the Bitcoin front, volatility is still the theme. As macro anxiety persists, token movements and investor flows suggest digital assets might be adapting to the new normal of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation.

Recession Fears Cloud Market Outlook

US recession fears are gaining momentum after top financial analysts sounded the alarm. According to reports, betting markets now have a 40-60% chance of a recession by 2025. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, told CoinDesk in a message:

“Our view is that it probably doesn’t matter, as sentiment often frames reality, not the other way around.”

The crypto market is showing resilience in this environment. As US equity volatility spikes, Bitcoin is outperforming traditional assets, proving its role as a store of value. Fan added:

“A beggar-thy-neighbor policy with tariffs has pushed spot gold to all-time highs, and BTC finally regaining some of its long-lost ‘store of value’ narrative.”

Token Watch: OM, and IP Defy the Odds

Mantra’s OM token also bounced back 20% after a 90% flash crash late Sunday through Monday. The project’s CEO has reportedly outlined a recovery plan, but skepticism remains. Elsewhere, Story Protocol’s IP token dropped 20% before recovering 30% in hours, sparking fears of another OM-style meltdown that briefly spooked retail.

These wild swings show how speculative assets are highly reactive in times of uncertainty. But opportunistic traders are profiting from these dislocations in some corners of the market.

Derivatives Market Signals Mixed Sentiment

Singapore-based QCP Capital says the options market is still cautionary. BTC risk reversals are skewed towards put options until June, bearish short-term. But there’s optimism beyond that.

QCP reports “aggressive buying” of Bitcoin March 2026 $100,000 call options. And this strike now has nearly $1.2 billion notional open interest, the most popular call option among crypto derivatives traders.

Bitcoin is still in the $80,000–$90,000 range. “The tone further out is more constructive,” QCP said, implying that market participants are taking a “wait and see” approach as Washington navigates tariff tensions.

Fed Signals Support As Traders Eye Sentiment Shift

While the markets are still jittery, some traders think the worst of the tariff selloffs are behind them. The Fed has played a big role in this. Jupiter Zheng, partner at HashKey Capital, told CoinDesk,

“The current up trend was further boosted by the Fed’s statement that it will intervene and stabilize the market if a crisis is triggered by the tariffs.”

Zheng said ongoing trade talks between the US and its global partners will improve the macro environment for crypto. “We hope the most turbulent period is behind us,” he said.

Conclusion

The crypto market is at a crossroads. Dogecoin’s drop and OM’s wild ride show how sensitive traders are to macro signals. But Bitcoin’s ability to hold near $85,000 is saying a lot about its emerging role as a safe haven.

As recession forecasts heat up and the Fed reiterates it will step in, digital assets may find firmer ground. If Bitcoin continues to hold up in economic turmoil, its long held “store of value” thesis may finally resonate more in mainstream finance.

FAQs

Why did Dogecoin drop while Bitcoin stayed steady?

Dogecoin dropped 3% as traders rotated out of meme coins due to broader macro uncertainty, especially fears of a US recession. Bitcoin held steady at $85,000 as investors saw it as a safer hedge in uncertain times.

What are the recession fears about and how is it affecting crypto?

Multiple analysts and betting markets now put a 40%–60% chance of a US recession in 2025. This is causing caution across asset classes.

Why is OM token recovering after its big drop?

OM token is up 20% after a 90% drop, reportedly due to thin liquidity and mass liquidations. The CEO has a recovery plan but we’ll see how credible that is.

What’s the Bitcoin price outlook with tariffs?

Bitcoin is consolidating in the $80K-$90K range with the $100K call option being the mid-term trade among institutional traders. Market is cautiously optimistic with the Fed signaling intervention if tariffs cause financial instability.

Glossary

Bitcoin Recession: Market behavior and sentiment where Bitcoin is influenced or driven by macroeconomic recessionary indicators.

Risk Reversals: Options trading strategy measuring the difference in implied volatility between call and put options to gauge market sentiment.

Open Interest (OI): Total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled. OI increasing means more market participation.

Store of Value: Asset that maintains its value over time without depreciating, used as a hedge against inflation or economic instability.

RWA Token: Token backed by or represents real-world assets like real estate, commodities or traditional financial instruments.

Sources

CoinDesk

CoinMarketcap

Disclaimer

This article is for ‘information purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are risky, do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.