Former U.S. President and Republican candidate Donald Trump continues to lead in prediction markets against his rival Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential election. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s odds of winning have risen to 50.8%, while Harris’s odds have dropped to 48.4%. This represents a 0.2% increase for Trump and a 0.2% decrease for Harris in just one hour. Adding fuel to the market, Elon Musk‘s appearance at a Trump rally has had a significant impact on the crypto market.
Trump Leads in Prediction Markets
Crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has seen increasing interest in betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections. Bets placed using USDC (U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin) reflect Trump’s growing advantage. This rise highlights how major public events can sway market sentiment. One notable development was the assassination attempt against Trump in July, which played a role in this growing momentum.
Following a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump’s popularity on Polymarket surged. His support jumped from 60% to 70% in one day but later fell to 46% after Harris replaced Joe Biden in the race. Trump soon regained ground and outpaced Harris with 52% to 47% support. By mid-September, the two candidates were locked in a dead heat, each with 49% odds.
As Trump rose again in the polls, accusations of market manipulation emerged. A report on X claimed that early September saw attempts to artificially boost Harris’s odds on Polymarket. This manipulation involved the use of $9 million USDC to purchase “yes” shares for Harris and “no” shares for Trump. The goal was to inflate Harris’s odds and profit from the shift. However, the attempt failed.
Elon Musk and Trump Move the Crypto Markets
Trump’s surge in the prediction markets coincided with Elon Musk publicly endorsing him at a rally in Pennsylvania, further solidifying Trump’s position. Musk’s endorsement had a noticeable effect, particularly on meme coins. According to blockchain analytics platform Spot On Chain, an investor made a profit of $113,000 within 17 hours by investing in Trump-related cryptocurrencies after Musk’s speech.
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This trader is up $113K (+31.5%) in just 17 hours by betting on #memecoins $TRUMP and $MAGA after @elonmusk‘s pro-Trump speech.
As soon as Elon Musk’s live speech began yesterday, he spent 360K $USDC to snag 2.449B $MAGA ($300K) and 18,364 $TRUMP ($60K).
Now, these holdings are… pic.twitter.com/t23m12dgb2
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) October 7, 2024
The investor purchased TRUMP and MAGA tokens for 360,000 USDC immediately after Musk’s endorsement, resulting in a 31.5% return in a short period. Musk’s influence on the crypto market is well-known, with his comments often sparking sudden price movements in memecoins, providing traders with quick profit opportunities.
What Is the Election Outlook?
Despite Trump’s advantage over Harris in prediction markets, he still trails in key battleground states. Notably, Nevada, known for accurately predicting past elections, remains a challenge for Trump. Polymarket data shows Trump’s chances of winning all swing states at 19%, similar to Harris’s odds. Nevada, which has shifted toward the Democrats in recent elections, could be a stumbling block for Trump.
In addition, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gained significant support in Nevada, bolstering the Democrats’ position. However, after Kennedy withdrew from the race, many of his supporters shifted their backing to Trump. On the other hand, Ohio, a Republican stronghold, remains a bright spot for Trump, where he has a 90% chance of winning according to Polymarket data. This suggests that the 2024 election could be one of the closest in history.
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