The growing interest in altcoin ETFs has put Litecoin (LTC) at the forefront of approval discussions. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have updated their 2025 predictions for spot altcoin ETF approvals, placing Litecoin as the frontrunner, while XRP lags behind.
Litecoin Leads, XRP Falls Behind
According to the analysts’ projections, Litecoin has a 90% chance of receiving ETF approval, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70%. XRP, however, has the lowest likelihood, with an estimated 65% chance.
Balchunas emphasized that Litecoin has always been a strong contender in the ETF approval race. He also noted that before the election period, the approval chances for all altcoin ETF applications were below 5%, making the current predictions significantly higher.
Key Factors Driving Litecoin’s ETF Approval
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently accepted 19b-4 forms for a potential Litecoin ETF, a crucial step toward approval. This regulatory development has significantly boosted optimism surrounding Litecoin.
Balchunas further highlighted that Litecoin, being a Bitcoin fork and utilizing the Proof-of-Work (PoW) mechanism, presents an advantage in the eyes of the SEC. Similarly, Dogecoin might benefit from its unique market positioning, as it was launched without a pre-sale, making it comparable to Litecoin in regulatory evaluations.
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XRP and Solana Face Uncertainty
The analysts pointed out that the SEC’s classification of XRP and Solana as securities has significantly impacted their ETF approval chances. Despite this, Dogecoin’s slightly higher approval probability over Solana (by 5%) could be attributed to the fact that DOGE has not yet been formally labeled as a security.
However, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce leads a Crypto Task Force that may reconsider the regulatory status of XRP and Solana by the end of 2025. If this happens, the approval odds for XRP and SOL ETFs could rise considerably.
2025: A Crucial Year for Crypto ETFs
Reports suggest that the SEC may accept XRP and Dogecoin ETF applications within the week. Meanwhile, analysts foresee the emergence of alternative ETF structures in 2025. Balchunas noted that while firms like BlackRock have applied under the 1933 Act, other options, including 40 Act-based futures ETFs or funds based in the Cayman Islands, could also gain traction.
The increasing pressure on the SEC to clarify its stance on crypto investment products, along with growing institutional interest, could make 2025 a defining year for crypto ETFs.
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