One of the largest banks in global banking, Standard Chartered has made a prediction for Bitcoin price to reach nearly $73.000 on November 5, U.S. Election Day. According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at the bank, such forecasts strengthen with increasing Bitcoin sensitivity to political and economic movements especially around high-profile events like the U.S. election.
Bitcoin could rally hard on Election Day as it will see increased market interest and speculation over political changes, Kendrick outlines in a report published last week. Kendrick sums it up succinctly: “We think the BTC price is likely to be at around USD 73,000 on Election Day, November 5,” as a result of market sentiment or preferences for potential election results.
Election Outcomes and Their Impact on BTC Price
In a recent report, analysts with Standard Chartered broke down specific price levels based on possible election outcomes. Better yet, the report outlines how a win for Republicans could spell even greater Bitcoin growth, with Bitcoin Reaching $125k by year’s end.
“If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target level of USD 125,000 should come into view,” Kendrick said. This perspective, Kendrick argued, could be a sign of hope when it comes to market-friendly policies that might improve investor confidence in risk assets and, more specifically, Bitcoin, as the expectation is for fewer regulatory shackles.
Kendrick fields a more cautious view, by contrast, that if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, he believes the price of Bitcoin would drop first but BTC will still achieve $75k by 2024 end. “If Harris wins, we see BTC initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs,” Kendrick writes of a long-term bullish scenario.
Bitcoin Growth Driver
It also helps that more regulated Bitcoin ETFs from the U.S. and major asset managers are buying, which supports Standard Chartered’s bullish case. According to available reports, ten of the biggest asset managers globally are now custodians for over $60 billion in Bitcoin through these ETFs which highlights a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as part and parcel with established socio economic structures.
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“The launch of U.S.-regulated ETFs was a watershed moment,” noted Kendrick’s analysis. Recent appetite for Bitcoin ETFs amongst major financial institutions, like Blackrock, have seen larger sums of money than before pumped into the space around Bitcoin, which may support price increases.
The Next Big Catalyst for a Bull Run
The Bitcoin halving event expected by 2024 early on, a catalyst for anticipating higher prices due to previous revisions, adds more weight within positive momentum. Since the halving (which halves mining rewards) constrains supply and has frequently preceded significant price spikes. As Kendrick alludes to past halving cycles, he writes that “a halving is typically followed by a year of ‘irrational market exuberance’ before the market cools.”
Standard Chartered ties expected halving-driven price increases to the broader market narrative of Bitcoin’s scarcity and its case as “digital gold,” with political conditions favouring risk-on sentiment potentially pushing Bitcoin up towards $125,000 by 2024.
High Stakes for Bitcoin as the U.S. Election Looms
With the US election almost upon us, Standard Chartered’s bullish outlook is a testament to both the positive and negative sentiment surrounding Bitcoin as institutions adopt it while regulations shift. Though it is difficult to predict the future price of Bitcoin and could depend on a variety of other factors, like macroeconomic trends and investor sentiment around election time, the bank’s analysis points towards an explosive period for Bitcoin, which doggedly surpasses previous all-time highs.
Election Day is only a few weeks away, and all eyes are on how the political climate could impact Bitcoin, with speculation that it may rise to new peaks.
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