In Trump vs Harris clash, Donald Trump’s prospects for winning the 2024 presidential election have dropped by 13 percentage points in the last month. As of now, Trump and Kamala Harris are evenly matched on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, with both candidates having equal chances of winning the White House.
Meme coins Reflect Trump’s Declining Chances
The reported decline in Trump’s chances is also mirrored in the performance of Trump-themed meme coins, which have seen significant drops in value over the same period. These coins, which are often used as a barometer of Trump’s popularity, have suffered substantial losses, indicating a waning confidence among supporters.
Trump vs Harris: A Shift in the Race
Former President Donald Trump allegedly started the election cycle with a commanding lead over the Democrats. However, that lead has evaporated with President Joe Biden stepping down and Kamala Harris taking over as the Democratic candidate.
Over the past month, Trump’s chances of reclaiming the White House have decreased by 13 percentage points, while Harris’ chances have reportedly surged by 34 percentage points. Harris initially gained momentum as Biden’s likely successor and has now become a formidable opponent to Trump.
Trump’s decline can be traced back to the aftermath of the first Presidential debate against Biden, where he held a high of 72% in prediction markets. The debate was a challenging moment for the Democrats, with Biden himself allegedly admitting afterward that he “screwed up.” This resulted in a temporary boost for Trump. However, as Harris became the clear Democratic frontrunner, Trump’s lead began to fade.
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Polymarket and Polling Align on Harris’ Rise
Polymarket’s odds now align closely with recent polling data, indicating a significant shift in the 2024 election landscape. A CBS News poll conducted between July 30 and August 2 showed Harris with a 1 percentage point lead over Trump. Given the poll’s 2.1 percentage point margin of error, this is essentially a tie, reflecting the tightening race.
Around the same time, polling aggregator 538 also reportedly declared the race a statistical tie, further emphasizing the competitive nature of the election. In the days that followed, Harris managed to carve out a slight advantage in the polls, solidifying her position as a formidable contender against Trump.
Moreover, the decline in Trump’s chances is not only reflected in polling and prediction markets but also in the performance of Trump-themed PoliFi tokens. These tokens, which are linked to Trump’s political fortunes, have allegedly experienced a more significant drop than the polls suggest. MAGA, the first Trump token, has fallen by nearly 38% in the last month, according to CoinGecko data. Similarly, the Solana-based token Tremp has decreased by 40% over the same period.
Conclusion
Overall, the last month has seen a notable shift in the 2024 presidential race, with Trump’s lead evaporating and Kamala Harris emerging as a strong contender. This reported shift is reflected not only in prediction markets and polling but also in the decline of Trump-themed digital assets, signaling a broader loss of confidence in Trump’s chances of winning the White House. The convergence of these factors paints a picture of a rapidly changing political landscape where public sentiment and financial markets are responding to the evolving dynamics of the race.
As Harris gains momentum, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the 2024 election could be far more competitive than initially anticipated, with both candidates now facing an uphill battle to secure the presidency. The declining value of Trump-themed tokens, once a strong indicator of his support base, further underscores the uncertainty and volatility that have come to define this election cycle. Learn about the role of crypto in the nearing US elections of Trump vs Harris with TheBITJournal.
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