XRP’s recent price rally is now under pressure, as traders weigh technical warning signs and on-chain data that hint at a possible downturn. While some technical analysts still see a path to $3.60, others warn of a breakdown toward $1.04 or even $0.67 unless buying pressure resumes swiftly.
Whale Wallets Signal Trouble as XRP Trades Below $2.58 Average
As of May 16, XRP price stands at $2.43, still 30% below its 2025 peak of $3.40. According to on-chain data from Santiment and CryptoQuant, wallets holding more than 10,000 XRP, commonly referred to as whales are now sitting on unrealized losses, with their average entry at $2.58. Historically, this has signaled risk, not recovery.
In past market cycles, such as September 2021, XRP temporarily bounced after falling below whale cost bases, only to retreat further in the weeks that followed. This behavior is tied to what analysts call “realized price magnetism,” where prices gravitate around average cost bases before making a decisive move. If this pattern repeats, XRP could rise toward $2.58 briefly but ultimately slide to test support levels between $1.04 and $0.67, especially if bulls fail to reclaim resistance zones near $2.80.
Technical Breakdown Looms with Inverse Cup-and-Handle Setup
Beyond whale activity, chart watchers are closely tracking a concerning pattern: an inverse cup-and-handle forming on XRP’s multi-month chart. The pattern stretches from December 2024 to May 2025 and features a rounded top (the cup) followed by a flatlining handle phase. According to crypto analysts, a breakdown below $1.11 would validate this bearish structure and trigger a steep drop to around $0.50, a projected target based on the pattern’s height.
Volume metrics also support this cautionary view. During the handle formation, trading volume has decreased, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, signaling indecision rather than bullish conviction. Historically, such setups often lead to abrupt corrections if neckline support fails.
Falling Wedge Retest Keeps Hope Alive But Only Just
Not all indicators are bearish. Technical analyst CW points to a retest of a falling wedge breakout, a pattern that often precedes upward momentum if validated. XRP recently bounced off the wedge’s upper trendline, a behavior seen as confirmation of previous resistance turning into new support.
CW projects a possible rise toward $3.60 if XRP price holds above this level. However, should it fall back into the wedge, the bullish setup would be nullified. In that case, XRP price targets shift to the lower trendline, near $1.75, exposing traders to renewed downside risk.
ETF Speculation and Institutional Hopes Offer a Bullish Wild Card
Away from the charts and wallets, some market optimism stems from broader institutional developments. The XRP community continues to speculate on the potential launch of spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. This would follow the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which saw ETF inflows catalyze price appreciation earlier in the year.
While there has been no formal ETF filing for XRP as of May 2025, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has hinted at “institutional-grade demand” emerging from banking partners, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. If regulatory hurdles are cleared, an ETF announcement could reignite buying interest and pull XRP above its current resistance zones.
Traders Split: Is This a Bull Trap or the Start of a Breakout?
The divergence in opinions is stark. Bulls point to the wedge breakout and a possible return to $3.60 if macro conditions improve. Bears, however, emphasize the whale loss zones, technical reversal signals, and weakening volume.
XRP is in a critical zone. If bulls don’t show up soon, we could be staring down at an XRP price of $1.04 again. Short-term gains might be just noise before the real test begins.
The XRP price crash debate tells the broader volatility in altcoins as traders react to macro shifts, including upcoming Fed policy decisions, dollar strength, and Bitcoin dominance reclaiming over 52%.
Conclusion: XRP’s Price Hangs in the Balance
If XRP can stay above the falling wedge breakout and reclaim whale cost zones near $2.58, a climb toward $3.60 remains possible. But if price breaks below $1.11, it could activate bearish targets between $1.04 and $0.50, especially as whales cut exposure.
Institutional tailwinds like a spot ETF could eventually provide relief. But until confirmed, XRP remains on shaky footing. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and key price reactions near $2.58 and $1.11 to gauge the next big move.
FAQs
What is the current whale cost basis for XRP?
As of May 2025, whale wallets have an average entry price of around $2.58, according to on-chain data.
Why is XRP’s $1.11 level important?
It represents the neckline of an inverse cup-and-handle pattern. A breakdown below this level could trigger a crash toward $0.50.
Could XRP price rebound toward $3.60?
If the falling wedge breakout holds and volume returns, XRP could climb toward $3.60 as per technical projections.
Is there any talk of an XRP ETF?
There are no official filings yet, but speculation continues based on Ripple’s institutional partnerships and comments from executives.
Glossary
Whale Wallet – A wallet that holds a large amount of cryptocurrency, often 10,000 coins or more.
Realized Price – The average price at which coins in a wallet group were last moved, used to assess cost basis.
Falling Wedge – A bullish technical chart pattern where two downward-sloping lines converge, often leading to a breakout.
Inverse Cup-and-Handle – A bearish pattern resembling an upside-down cup with a handle, signaling potential price drops.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – A momentum oscillator used to measure the speed and change of price movements.
S0urces
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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