The target for Bitcoin (BTC) to break through $100,000 has not yet been realized. The price briefly traded around $99,500 but then fell back to $94,500 during the night. This decline has sparked fear of more declines in the future. Current market signals point towards Bitcoin dropping down to $90,000 in the coming days due to bearish pressure.
The first indication of possible risk is the 25-delta risk reversal. This metric calculates the spread between the out of the money call and put options price. Call options are usually employed for making a bullish stand because puts are used for hedging the losses. Lately, the risk reversal on Deribit has become negative, which means that puts are costlier than calls. This is important because it is the first decline in more than a month.
Source: Deribit
Bearish Trend in Bitcoin
More evidence of this bearish view can therefore be seen from the over the counter (OTC) markets. On Monday, traders conducted sell call spreads and buy put options on BTC. This type of positioning is often understood as a kind of bet that the prices are going to stay low. The negative risk reversal together with higher put options volume indicate that the sentiment is cautious especially after Bitcoin’s failure to break through $100,000.
One more technical indicator which may signal further distress is the Relative Strength Index, RSI, a momentum indicator that measures the strength of a stock’s price movement. On Friday, BTC price climbed to a new high above $99,000. Nonetheless, the RSI failed to produce the same in order to create what is commonly referred to as bearish divergence.
Intraday charts also show that the support for BTC is at $87,000 and $88,000. Thus, if the price will continue to drop, these levels can become the temporary support level. However, long-term technical analysis still remain positive thus suggesting that a bounce back could occur at some point.
Declining US Demand for Bitcoin
The key driver of the recent BTC price rally in the United States has started to lose steam with respect to demand. After the US election, the price of BTC rose from $70,000 to about $100,000 due to massive buying pressure coming from American investors.
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However, this momentum seems to be declining. The “Coinbase premium”, which measures the spread between the price of BTC at Coinbase and that at offshore markets such as Binance, has now gone into the negative.
Even with the recent retrace, option traders remain mostly bullish on the future of Bitcoin and its price. Data from on-chain analytics reveal that about 47% of Bitcoin options traders expect the Bitcoin price to be above $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Bitcoin Price Forecasts for 2024
Nick Forster, the founder of an on-chain options DeFi protocol, said that the chance of Bitcoin getting to $100,000 has risen from 34% to 45% within a week. At the same time, the probability of BTC jumping to $150,000 has risen to 4%. The change in the options market activity means that investors are still ready to place their money on BTC expanding.
As of now, one Bitcoin has been trading at $93,610, which is 9.3% less than the $100,000 Bitcoin had reached recently. However, it is to note that market forecasts for 2024 are still rather contradictory. Experts estimate the probability of reaching the levels of $81,000 – 115,000 by the end of the year at 68%.
Managing Risk in a Bull Market
Ki Young Ju, the chief executive of CryptoQuant, noted that pullbacks of 30 percent are possible for bitcoin in a bull market. He noted that BTC had steep pullbacks during previous bull markets including the one that started this year. Ju advised traders to monitor their risks and not to rush to sell when the prices of Bitcoins are falling since the future of BTC is still bright.
The performance of BTC in the next few weeks will be important in the direction of the Bitcoin in the rest of 2024. Although the indicators suggest some short term bearish conditions, the long term is likely to be bullish. In the next few months, there is a possibility that the bullish and bearish pressure will define the price direction of Bitcoin.
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The price predictions and financial analysis presented on this website are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that prices can fluctuate significantly and unpredictably.
You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The Bit Journal does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided in the price predictions, and we will not be held liable for any losses incurred as a result of relying on this information.
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, including the risk of significant losses. Always invest responsibly and within your means.
