The gold price forecast faces a difficult test this week after bullion recorded its worst October since 2008. Gold ended Friday at $3,875 an ounce, down 3.6% in the final session, as selling across technology and AI-related stocks intensified.
The decline took gold below support near $3,970 and below $3,886, its October 2025 low. BeInCrypto’s report points to energy prices, interest-rate expectations and stock-market stress as factors in the selloff. US events this week also include the midterm elections and the October jobs report.
Key Takeaways
- Gold ended Friday at $3,875 an ounce after falling 3.6% in the final session, according to BeInCrypto.
- Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said chart-driven selling was in control after gold broke support near $3,970.
- Oil prices, rate expectations and stock-market stress are among the factors cited in the report.
- Hansen said a recovery above $4,000 would begin to calm the short-term picture, but that level would not establish a lasting recovery.
What happened to gold?
BeInCrypto reported on November 1 that gold closed below $3,886, its October 2025 low, after breaking below support near $3,970. Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, said chart-driven sellers were in control.
Hedge funds had cut bullish gold bets for nine consecutive weeks, Hansen said, according to BeInCrypto. He warned that if more holders give up, the decline could run deeper and longer.
Investors have also added about 150 tonnes to gold exchange-traded funds since July, BeInCrypto reported. Saxo Bank said much of that buying was now below cost. The report does not quantify how much of those holdings might be sold or when.
Background and context for the gold price forecast
Gold pays no interest, so higher rates can make it less attractive. BeInCrypto cited economist Robin Brooks, who wrote that since the Iran war began, a 10% rise in Brent crude had matched a 4% drop in gold.
The report said pricier oil feeds inflation and keeps US rate hikes in focus. Markets still expected two rate hikes, according to Hansen’s comments reported by BeInCrypto. That is a market expectation, not a confirmed Federal Reserve decision. Hansen also said a deeper stock-market crash could lead the Fed to drop the hikes markets expect.
Stock-market stress is another factor cited in the report. BeInCrypto said hedge funds had made their biggest stock pullback since 2017, led by AI shares. Market commentator Prem Soni called Friday’s drop a margin call. He said: “When you are over leveraged and have zero cash flow, you don’t sell what you want to sell. You sell what you can sell.” His comments describe pressure on investors to raise cash, but the evidence does not specify which assets they sold.
This creates competing possibilities for the gold price forecast. Hansen’s view, reported by BeInCrypto, is that the stock rout hurting gold now could eventually help it if it changes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. That is a possibility, not a confirmed outcome.
Market reaction and the competing outlooks
The immediate picture is weak: gold ended Friday below $3,900 after breaking support. Analysts cited by BeInCrypto differed on the potential downside. Hansen warned that further capitulation could extend the decline. Brooks, writing after gold slipped below $4,000, said a return to “hot” war with Iran would weigh on gold in the near term, but described the downside as limited.
Ronnie Stoeferle of asset manager Incrementum pointed to positioning data as evidence of weaker sentiment. He said bullish silver bets had fallen to 3,321 contracts from 42,756 in July 2025. He also said only 10% of gold miners traded above their 200-day average, a common long-term trend line. These observations do not establish a price floor.
Analyst Rashad Hajiyev offered a longer-term, speculative view. He characterized 2026 as a consolidation period and suggested a possible move toward $10,000 in 2027 or 2028. This is his scenario, not a confirmed outcome, and it does not resolve near-term risks.
What to watch next
BeInCrypto listed two US events this week: midterm elections on Tuesday and the October jobs report on Friday. Its report did not provide an expected jobs figure. Hansen said a recovery above $4,000 would begin to calm the short-term picture.
The near-term gold price forecast could shift if energy prices, conflict risks or equity selling change. Hansen said the stock rout currently hurting gold could eventually help if it leads the Federal Reserve to drop the two rate hikes markets still expect. The direction and timing remain uncertain.
FAQ
What is the gold price forecast for this week?
BeInCrypto’s reporting points to uncertainty after Friday’s close at $3,875. Hansen said a move above $4,000 could ease short-term pressure, while he also warned that further selling could deepen and extend the decline.
Why did gold fall in October?
BeInCrypto reported that gold had its worst October since 2008. Its coverage of Friday’s selloff cited chart-driven selling, pressure from technology and AI-related stocks, energy prices and interest-rate expectations.
Can gold fall further after its worst October since 2008?
Hansen warned that the decline could run deeper and longer if more holders give up. Brooks described the downside as limited in the event of a renewed “hot” war with Iran, while Hajiyev suggested a possible longer-term move higher. These are attributed views and scenarios, not certainties.
Sources
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; always do your own research before investing.
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