Bitcoin bull market resilience is being tested after a hack that BeInCrypto says drained about $6.3 billion from Binance across 10 blockchains on October 29. Bitcoin’s weekly decline was relatively shallow, but ETF outflows and the US midterm vote mean the chart signals do not settle the market’s direction.
BeInCrypto reported that Binance pledged to cover all losses and began phased withdrawals on November 1. The indicators discussed here describe market conditions; they do not establish what prices will do next.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin closed the week down 2.9%, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. He compared that with gold’s 3% fall over the same stretch and Bitcoin’s 25% decline during the 2022 FTX collapse.
- Bitcoin posted a seventh consecutive weekly close above its 50-week moving average. The 14-month RSI stayed above 50 for a third month.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.33 million in outflows on October 30. Their average holder cost basis was above Bitcoin’s reported price.
- The US midterm vote is on November 3. Historical November performance is context, not a forecast for this year.
What happened in the Binance hack
BeInCrypto reported that the October 29 incident affected 10 blockchains and involved about $6.3 billion, describing it as the largest crypto hack on record. Binance pledged to cover all losses, and phased withdrawals began November 1.
The incident tested the Bitcoin bull market narrative: would a record-sized exchange hack coincide with a broader sell-off? Woo said Bitcoin closed the week down 2.9%. He compared that with gold’s 3% decline over the same stretch and Bitcoin’s 25% fall during the 2022 FTX collapse. The comparison describes the size of the moves, but does not establish why markets moved as they did.
Ash Crypto has argued that a 20% decline can be normal during a Bitcoin bull market. That is an analyst’s view, and the reported weekly loss was smaller. Neither comparison alone establishes whether the current market is in a bull or bear phase.
Background and context for the Bitcoin bull market
Three chart readings suggest Bitcoin’s broader trend has not clearly broken. First, Ash Crypto said Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for seven straight weeks. The streak began in September, when Bitcoin reclaimed the average for the first time in 45 weeks.
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn said reclaiming the 50-week average had historically served as strong confirmation that bear-market lows were in. That is a historical observation, not proof of this cycle’s outcome. BeInCrypto placed the average near $75,602, with Bitcoin about 3.6% above it in its report.
Second, monthly momentum remained above a commonly watched threshold despite October’s loss. Coinglass data cited by BeInCrypto show Bitcoin gained about 43% across July, August and September, then closed October down 7.32%, its first monthly loss since June. Analyst PlanB’s chart showed the 14-month relative strength index above 50 for a third consecutive month. RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100; readings above 50 mean gains outweighed losses over the lookback period.
PlanB interprets the streak as the start of a new bull market. That is his reading of a technical indicator, not a confirmed outcome. The indicator describes price momentum; it does not establish what will happen next.
Market reaction: price signals versus ETF flows
Price and fund flows offer different measures of market conditions. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.33 million in outflows on October 30, the first full session after the hack, according to BeInCrypto. The outflow erased four days of inflows and left the week about $202 million negative. Glassnode data put the average cost basis for US spot ETF holders near $82,308. In BeInCrypto’s report, Bitcoin was about 4.9% below that level, leaving the average holder below their cost basis.
CoinGecko recorded BTC at $77,946 at 10:13 UTC on November 2. BeInCrypto cited $78,307 at press time, a separate price observation.
| Bitcoin measure | Reading | As of |
|---|---|---|
| BTC price | $77,946 | November 2, 2026, 10:13 UTC |
| 24-hour change | -0.16% | November 2, 2026, 10:13 UTC |
| 7-day change | -2.67% | November 2, 2026, 10:13 UTC |
CoinGecko also showed Bitcoin down 7.79% over 30 days as of that market-data snapshot. Separately, Coinglass data cited by BeInCrypto put BTC 10.4% below its January 1 level. Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index was 37, classified as Fear, on November 2. These figures provide additional context alongside the technical indicators; none alone determines the market’s direction.
The reported price levels and fund flows are not assurances about future performance. Bitcoin’s market price can change, and the measurements cited here are tied to their stated dates and sources.
What to watch next
The next near-term event is the US midterm vote on November 3. Coinglass data cited by BeInCrypto show Bitcoin closed November higher in 10 of 16 years, with a median gain of 10.3%. Midterm years in that sample were evenly split, with two positive and two negative Novembers. Bitcoin fell 36.41% in 2018 and 16.23% in 2022, both bear-market years. This historical sample is context, not a forecast.
BeInCrypto noted that a weekly close above the 50-week moving average after the vote may distinguish 2026 from those two prior midterm-year bear markets. The report also highlighted $82,308, the estimated average ETF holder cost basis, and $87,500, a resistance level marked in Ash Crypto’s monthly analysis. These are reported reference levels, not assured support or resistance.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Bitcoin bull market signal mean after the Binance hack?
It refers to chart measures that remained positive after the incident, including weekly closes above the 50-week average and a monthly RSI above 50. They describe market conditions, not a certain future price direction.
How much did Bitcoin fall during the hack week?
On-chain analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin closed the week down 2.9%. BeInCrypto contrasted that with a 25% decline during the 2022 FTX collapse.
Why are Bitcoin ETF outflows being watched?
BeInCrypto reported $643.33 million in US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on October 30. The figure is one measure of investor flows, while Bitcoin’s price and technical indicators provide other views of market conditions.
Sources
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; always do your own research before investing.
For advertising inquiries, please email . [email protected] or Telegram
