The XRP relief rally case is being tested by mixed signals: new wallets are being added to the XRP Ledger, while US demand indicators and social sentiment have weakened. BeInCrypto reported on November 3 that XRP was near $1.25, down almost 16% over the previous month. These figures do not establish that a rebound is underway.
- Santiment counted 7,934 new XRP Ledger wallets on November 1, the sixth-highest daily total of 2026.
- XRP sentiment was about 0.61 bullish comments for every bearish comment, versus 0.69 for Bitcoin and 1.14 for Ethereum.
- Arab Chain reported a Coinbase Premium Index reading near -0.16% on November 2, an eight-month low.
- US spot XRP ETFs recorded $18.83 million in October net inflows, down from $121.40 million in September, according to SoSoValue data cited by BeInCrypto.
- Santiment identified $1.25 as an immediate pivot and described conditional scenarios around $1.30 and $1.20.
Timeline of events behind the XRP relief rally debate
- October 29, 2026: Binance suffered a hack. A BeInCrypto investigation published the next day said BitOK traced approximately $6.15 billion drained across nine blockchains. Binance initially put losses at $6.3 billion.
- October 29-30, 2026: US spot XRP ETFs added $8.43 million on October 29 and recorded a $496,000 outflow on October 30, according to SoSoValue data cited by BeInCrypto. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643 million in outflows on October 30.
- October 2026: XRP ETFs recorded $18.83 million in net inflows, their smallest monthly total since January. September’s total was $121.40 million.
- November 1, 2026: Santiment recorded 7,934 new XRP Ledger wallets. It noted the increase came on a Sunday, usually a quieter day for network activity.
- November 2-3, 2026: Arab Chain reported an eight-month low in the Coinbase premium on November 2. BeInCrypto published its analysis on November 3, when XRP was near $1.25.
Background: new wallets alone do not establish a price recovery
Santiment reported the increase in new XRP Ledger wallets but suggested it may reflect users moving toward self-custody after the Binance hack. The firm presented this as a possible explanation, not a confirmed cause. BeInCrypto’s investigation of the Binance hack said BitOK traced approximately $6.15 billion drained across nine blockchains, while Binance initially put losses at $6.3 billion.
CoinGecko’s November 3 snapshot at 08:13 UTC showed XRP at $1.25, up 0.1% over 24 hours but down 3.32% over seven days and 16.36% over 30 days. BeInCrypto’s report, published at 07:00 UTC, cited a 0.65% 24-hour decline. The short-term readings differ by source and snapshot time; both put XRP near $1.25 and report a monthly decline.
| Measure | Reading | As of |
|---|---|---|
| XRP price | $1.25 | November 3, 2026, 08:13 UTC |
| XRP change, 7 days | -3.32% | November 3, 2026, 08:13 UTC |
| XRP change, 30 days | -16.36% | November 3, 2026, 08:13 UTC |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 26, Fear | November 3, 2026 |
Reactions: sentiment and US demand point in different directions
Santiment’s social data showed about 0.61 bullish comments for every bearish comment about XRP, compared with 0.69 for Bitcoin and 1.14 for Ethereum. Santiment described a possible mid-term relief-rally setup if BTC and XRP sentiment stays below 1.0 while prices stop making new lows. It cautioned that fear alone does not identify an exact bottom. This is a conditional scenario, not a prediction that a rally will occur.
The Coinbase premium is another demand indicator. CryptoQuant said the roughly -0.16% reading meant XRP traded at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance. Arab Chain said sustained negative readings have sometimes been associated with weaker relative buying demand on Coinbase. A return to positive territory may indicate improved relative demand, but CryptoQuant said the negative reading alone does not establish further downside. Read CryptoQuant’s report on the XRP Coinbase Premium Index.
ETF inflows also slowed in October compared with September. SoSoValue data cited by BeInCrypto showed $18.83 million in October net inflows, against $121.40 million in September. October was the smallest monthly inflow since January. The report also cited $8.43 million in inflows on October 29 and a $496,000 outflow the next day. These figures describe fund flows, not all US buying or selling of XRP.
CoinGecko’s November 3 snapshot showed Bitcoin and Ethereum down 9.75% and 16.34%, respectively, over 30 days. Their declines coincided with XRP’s monthly decline; the figures do not establish what caused the price changes.
Outlook: conditions that could strengthen or weaken the XRP relief rally case
Santiment’s thresholds are conditions to monitor, not a forecast. It described a more constructive setup if XRP reclaimed $1.30 while new-wallet growth stayed above roughly 4,000 a day. It said the signal would weaken if XRP fell below $1.20 while daily wallet growth slipped under 3,000.
Other indicators to monitor include whether wallet growth persists, whether the Coinbase premium improves, and how November ETF flows compare with October’s. If XRP continues making new lows, Santiment’s stated sentiment condition would not be met, even if online discussion remains gloomy.
Wallet counts, sentiment readings, exchange premiums and fund flows each describe only part of the market. None determines future price performance or removes the possibility of losses.
FAQ
Is an XRP relief rally likely?
Santiment described a possible mid-term setup if sentiment stays below 1.0 and prices stop setting new lows. It also said sentiment alone cannot identify a bottom. The available data does not establish that a rally will happen.
What would strengthen the XRP relief rally signal?
Santiment pointed to XRP reclaiming $1.30 alongside more than roughly 4,000 new wallets per day. These are conditions for a more constructive setup, not a forecast.
Why are new XRP wallets increasing?
Santiment suggested the Binance hack may have prompted users to create self-custodied wallets. It presented this as a possible reason, not a confirmed explanation. The reported wallet count does not establish why the wallets were created.
Sources
- XRP Coinbase Premium Index Hits an 8-Month Low (cryptoquant.com)
- How Did the Binance Hack Happen? Detailed Investigation of the $6 Billion Heist (beincrypto.com)
- Is an XRP Relief Rally Coming? Wallet and Sentiment Data Explained (BeInCrypto)
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; always do your own research before investing.
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