Bitcoin’s performance against US government bonds is at a key test, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. He warned that Bitcoin’s underperformance against US Treasury bonds could have wider implications for other asset classes. U.Today reported his view on November 1, after he highlighted the ratio between BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), and pointed to $80,000 as a level to watch.
- McGlone said the IBIT/TLT ratio stood at 81 on October 30, against a starting value of 100 at the end of 2024.
- According to McGlone, the ratio has struggled to hold above 100 since the fourth quarter of 2025.
- He described IBIT as about four times as volatile as TLT and said continued Bitcoin weakness below $80,000 could signal further trouble for crypto markets.
- CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin at $78,101 at 09:13 UTC on November 1, up 1% over 24 hours but down 9.25% over 30 days.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 34, classified as Fear, on November 1, according to Alternative.me.
Timeline of the Bitcoin treasury bonds comparison
- End of 2024: McGlone’s comparison sets the IBIT/TLT ratio to a base of 100. He connected 2024 with the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and President Donald Trump’s shift from crypto critic to vocal supporter.
- Fourth quarter of 2025: The ratio struggled to stay above its 100 baseline, according to McGlone. This describes relative performance over time, rather than a single day’s price movement.
- October 30, 2026: McGlone put the ratio at 81. His post presented the result as Bitcoin ETF underperformance against the Treasury ETF on the normalized measure.
- November 1, 2026: U.Today published its report on McGlone’s warning. CoinGecko’s 09:13 UTC snapshot showed BTC below $80,000, while its 24-hour change was positive.
What the Bitcoin treasury bonds measure shows
The comparison uses two exchange-traded funds, not a direct calculation of Bitcoin’s price against Treasury yields. IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust, while TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. McGlone’s ratio starts at 100 at the end of 2024, so a reading of 81 is 19% below that reference point. It does not mean Bitcoin itself fell exactly 19% over the same period.
That distinction matters. The figure describes relative performance between the two funds, but does not establish why one lagged the other. McGlone said IBIT is about four times as volatile as TLT. That comparison highlights a difference in volatility, but does not determine future performance.
McGlone’s broader point is that Bitcoin has not outperformed US government bonds since the end of 2024, despite the launch of US spot ETFs and Trump’s shift toward support for crypto, as described in his post. His comments frame the ratio as a relative-performance comparison, not an explanation of the causes behind it.
McGlone’s warning and BTC market data
McGlone’s message is a warning, not a confirmed forecast of a crash. U.Today reported that he sees a risk of broader crypto-market trouble if Bitcoin remains weak below $80,000. His post also raises the possibility that Bitcoin’s strongest period may have passed. That remains his interpretation of past relative performance, not a settled conclusion.
Bitcoin was trading at $78,101 at 09:13 UTC on November 1, according to CoinGecko. It had gained 1% over 24 hours, but was down 3.08% over seven days and 9.25% over 30 days. The positive 24-hour change coincided with declines over the longer periods shown in the data.
| Measure | Reading | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $78,101 | November 1, 2026, 09:13 UTC |
| BTC change, 24 hours | +1% | November 1, 2026, 09:13 UTC |
| BTC change, 30 days | -9.25% | November 1, 2026, 09:13 UTC |
| IBIT/TLT ratio | 81, with 100 as the base | October 30, 2026 |
The Fear reading of 34 from Alternative.me is a snapshot of sentiment, not a forecast. The supplied data does not establish what caused the reading or how it may change. The ETF ratio and market figures provide different kinds of context: the ratio compares fund performance from a shared base, while the CoinGecko snapshot reports Bitcoin’s price and percentage changes over specified periods.
What to watch next
Two levels to follow in the comparison are Bitcoin’s $80,000 mark and the IBIT/TLT ratio’s 100 baseline. McGlone said persistent weakness below $80,000 could have broader implications, while his ratio comparison tracks relative fund performance. A move above or below either level would be a new data point, but the evidence here does not establish what it would mean for future prices or market direction.
Further readings of the two measures would show whether their relative positions change. The evidence here does not establish how either will move next, and U.Today’s report does not include additional data explaining the drivers of the ratio. McGlone’s volatility comparison is relevant context, but past relative performance does not establish future outcomes.
FAQ
Why are Bitcoin treasury bonds being compared?
McGlone uses the IBIT/TLT ratio to compare the relative performance of a Bitcoin ETF and a long-term Treasury ETF from a common base of 100 at the end of 2024. The measure is not a direct comparison of Bitcoin with Treasury yields.
What does an IBIT/TLT ratio of 81 mean?
It means the ratio was 19% below its base value of 100 on October 30, 2026, according to McGlone. It does not mean Bitcoin’s own price fell by 19% during that period.
Does Bitcoin below $80,000 confirm a crypto crash?
No. McGlone warned that persistent weakness below $80,000 could have broader implications, but a price level or ETF ratio cannot confirm a future crash. The evidence supports describing this as a concern he raised, not as a confirmed outcome.
Sources
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; always do your own research before investing.
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