Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analyst Sees Risk of Shakeout Before Recovery

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Veteran trader Peter Brandt projects a Bitcoin rebound path, saying Bitcoin may have one more big correction before it hits its all-time high of $125,100 again. He calls this a “huge shakeout” or a scenario where the current parabola is broken.

According to the reports, the market just went through a big decline triggered by Trump’s 100% tariff on Chinese goods and $19 billion in liquidations. Some say the volatility is temporary and the path is still up.

Brandt’s Two-Path Framework: Shakeout or Breakdown

Peter Brandt outlined two scenarios. The first is a “huge shakeout,” which will be resolved by a move back to the all-time high. The second is a break of the parabolic pat,h which has historically led to 75% losses. He says an 80% crash is unlikely now, but the market could retest the $50,000-$60,000 range, what he calls “the lower skin of the banana”.

“Either a huge shakeout, which would be confirmed by an ATH quickly within the next week or so, or a violation of the parabola, which every time in the past has produced a 75% price decline. I think the day of the 80% decline is over, but perhaps back to $50-60,000 and test the lower skin of the banana.”

Brandt’s framework doesn’t commit him to one side; it shows that price structure matters in the short term. 

Also read: Q4 Bitcoin Price Prediction: $BTC Rally Targets $160K–$180K by Year End

Market Shock: Tariffs Trigger Volatility and Liquidations

The big move came after US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The announcement caused panic across crypto markets and Bitcoin dropped from around $121,000 to $102,000 in some intraday swings. More than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across the crypto market.

Though Bitcoin is climbing back up; but markets are still jittery and sensitive to macro shifts.

Other Voices: Edwards, Hayes, Hundal and Alden

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, advises traders to manage their leverage tightly. He says even modest leverage above 1.5x could get investors into trouble in volatile conditions.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes went full tilt after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said quantitative tightening may be ending. Hayes told his followers to “back up the truck and buy everything”.

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal focused on the macro. He said inflation pressures, weak labor data and the overall economic backdrop “is the big story for Bitcoin”. He added that a “Goldilocks zone” might open if rate cuts come soon.

Macro strategist Lyn Alden chimed in, saying the next quarter could be “pretty good” for Bitcoin with easing inflation and potential monetary accommodation.

The Numbers

The size of the moves shows how fragile the recovery is. With $19 billion in liquidations cleaning out a lot of the leverage; and Bitcoin’s dip to $102,000 and back up to almost $114K shows volatility but also a strong support zone.

Brandt’s downside range of $50,000-$60,000 is extreme, but it’s a structural test if the parabola fails. And getting back to the all-time high of $125,100 is the central benchmark in his scenario framing.

Also read: Bitcoin to $120K: The Five Signals That Matter for BTC

Conclusion

Peter Brandt’s latest call is cautionary and may be possible. He says Bitcoin may have one more correction or consolidation before it gets back to the all-time high and frames both scenarios in structural market terms.

The recent tariff-driven volatility, mass liquidations, and macro signals have created a tense environment. Other market participants are bullish but agree that risk must be managed.

For now the path forward is unknown and the shakeout vs breakdown thesis is the lens through which investors must view subsequent price action.

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Summary

Peter Brandt expects one more big correction or shakeout before Bitcoin gets back to the all-time high. Last week’s U.S.-China tariff shock triggered $19 billion in liquidations and a dip to $102,000. Other analysts are overall bullish, especially if macro conditions loosen.

Glossary

Bitcoin rebound correction: A potential short-term downward move in Bitcoin’s price during or before a bigger upward rebound.

Parabola (market): A curve describing accelerating price action; its violation means structural breakdown.

Liquidations: Forced closure of leveraged positions when margin calls are not met.

Quantitative tightening/easing: Central bank policies that reduce or increase the money supply, respectively.

Leverage (e.g. 1.5×): Borrowing capital to amplify exposure beyond one’s own funds.

All-time high (ATH): The highest price ever recorded for an asset.

Frequently Asked Questions About Peter Brandt Bitcoin Rebound Projection

Why does Brandt expect another dip before the rally?

Brandt’s view is that markets often need structural cleansing (shakeouts) before momentum can resume. He frames it as either a short term break or a bigger parabola violation.

How much was liquidated last week?

$19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated due to the sharp sell off tied to tariff news.

What’s the significance of the parabola violation scenario?

Brandt says in past cycles violating the parabolic trend led to 75% drawdowns from peaks. He says this structure is a key level.

What does “buy everything” mean?

Hayes saw the Fed signals as the end of QT and thus more liquidity and bought everything.

Can macro conditions kill the rebound?

Yes. Inflation, rates, global trade and liquidity changes all matter. Hundal and Alden say these will decide if optimism or risk wins next.