This article was first published on The Bit Journal.
Toncoin (TON) is showing fresh momentum into 2026. Over the past week, price rose close to 10%, bouncing from the $1.45–$1.50 zone and pushing toward $1.63. Momentum indicators improved in step with the move: RSI strengthened, MACD flipped bullish, and price pressed toward the upper Bollinger Band, a setup that often appears when volatility starts expanding again.
Telegram distribution is the catalyst traders are watching
The rally has been linked to Telegram expanding access to its self-custodial wallet for U.S. users, which enables sending, swapping, and storing crypto inside the app. Telegram has pointed to a large U.S. user base and said wallet activations globally crossed 100 million in 2024, so even a small adoption bump can show up quickly in market pricing.
Self-custody is also a meaningful detail, not marketing fluff. Telegram’s documentation describes the self-custodial wallet as an on-chain wallet controlled by the seed phrase holder, with the app acting as an interface rather than a key holder.
On-chain data suggests usage is real, but liquidity is still catching up
TON’s DeFi total value locked was cited around $85 million, which suggests long-term DeFi capital remains modest for now. In contrast, stablecoin supply was cited near $960 million and fees were described as consistent, a sign that activity is happening even without heavy DeFi positioning. That mix often produces sharp moves because liquidity depth is limited while sentiment shifts fast.
Support is clearly defined at $1.45–$1.50, the area that held before the breakout attempt. Resistance starts around $1.63, where price pressed during the latest leg, and the next ceiling sits near $1.70, a region that showed up as a late-December high and tends to attract sellers and profit-takers.
What to watch next
This market read is informational and is not investment advice.
A sustained trend likely needs confirmation beyond RSI and MACD. Traders will be looking for rising TVL, continued stablecoin growth, and steady fee generation that supports the idea that the wallet rollout is converting into routine transactions. The main downside risk is operational: self-custody raises exposure to phishing and user error, and U.S. regulatory uncertainty can cool enthusiasm without warning.
Conclusion
TON’s near-10% rally is a distribution trade as much as it is a technical one. The chart has improved and the wallet narrative is easy to understand, but the ecosystem still needs deeper liquidity to keep price resilient. Until TVL rises meaningfully, TON may continue to behave like a momentum asset that runs hot when attention is high and softens when risk appetite fades.
FAQs
Advertisement Banner
What drove TON’s move this week?
Price rebounded from $1.45–$1.50 and pushed toward $1.63 as momentum improved and the market refocused on Telegram’s self-custodial wallet access for U.S. users.
What does self-custodial mean for Telegram’s wallet?
Telegram describes the self-custodial wallet as one where the private keys are controlled by the seed phrase holder, with the app providing an interface rather than holding the keys.
Why does TVL matter if price is rising?
TVL reflects how much capital is committed to DeFi protocols. Low TVL can mean liquidity is thin, while rising TVL can support more durable trends.
Glossary of key terms
RSI: A momentum indicator used to track strengthening or weakening buying pressure.
MACD: A trend and momentum indicator that can signal shifts when it turns bullish or bearish.
Bollinger Bands: Volatility bands that widen when volatility rises and tighten when markets quiet down.
TVL: Total value locked, the value deposited in DeFi protocols on a network.
Self-custodial wallet: A wallet model where control comes from the seed phrase holder rather than a custodian.
References
The price predictions and financial analysis presented on this website are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that prices can fluctuate significantly and unpredictably.
You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The Bit Journal does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided in the price predictions, and we will not be held liable for any losses incurred as a result of relying on this information.
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, including the risk of significant losses. Always invest responsibly and within your means.
For advertising inquiries, please email . [email protected] or Telegram
Advertisement Banner
