BitMine chairman Tom Lee argues that crypto’s response to the Binance hack shows bull-market resilience. Stablecoin supply and investor sentiment point to caution. Binance estimated the October 29 theft at $6.3 billion, but price action is only one measure of the market’s response.
- Binance said its hot wallets were compromised on October 29, causing an estimated $6.3 billion loss.
- Lee compared Ethereum’s roughly 4% post-hack decline with the larger drop after the 2025 Bybit hack.
- Binance said it had set aside more than $6.34 billion to cover the loss.
- Stablecoin supply and sentiment data offer a more cautious picture.
- Customers withdrew billions from Binance after withdrawals resumed on November 1.
Binance hack timeline: what happened
- October 29, 2026: Binance said its hot wallets were compromised at about 20:05 UTC. The exchange estimated the loss at $6.3 billion.
- October 30: Binance said it would cover the stolen funds through its SAFU fund and corporate treasury, and had set aside more than $6.34 billion. Bitquery reported that Binance said about $3 billion had been frozen on-chain by that date.
- November 1: Withdrawals resumed. The Block reported $4.65 billion withdrawn and $1.01 billion deposited in the first nine and a half hours, a net outflow of about $3.64 billion.
- November 2: The Block reported that BitMine bought 8,573 ETH in the preceding week. Lee called crypto’s response to the hack “very constructive.”
- November 3: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 26, in Fear territory. AP reported North Korea’s denial of involvement; Reuters had reported the FBI attributed the hack to North Korea.
Background: a price signal, not a full market test
Lee’s argument focuses on the size of the price move. In BitMine’s weekly holdings update, he compared the Binance hack with the $1.5 billion Bybit theft in February 2025. Lee said ETH fell 8% on the day Bybit disclosed its loss and 20% within a week. He put ETH’s decline after the Binance incident at about 4%.
The comparison has limits. CryptoSlate noted that the figures cover different time windows, so they are not a like-for-like measure. Lee also cited Binance’s ability to cover customer losses, the absence of a chain of DeFi failures, and faster public attribution than in some past incidents. These are Lee’s explanations, not proof that market risk has passed.
Binance’s commitment to cover losses does not eliminate the risks illustrated by the incident. Bitquery estimated that about $2.7 billion had been locked by Tether, Circle, Arbitrum, and smaller issuers, while about $3 billion remained with the attacker as of November 2. Those estimates differ from Binance’s earlier figure for funds frozen on-chain.
Withdrawals offer another measure of the immediate response. The Block reported about $3.64 billion in net outflows during the first nine and a half hours after withdrawals resumed on November 1. Reuters reported a net $4.72 billion in customer withdrawals by November 2. Binance said most were in Tether’s USDT. The figures cover different reporting periods.
Reactions: stablecoins and sentiment disagree
BeInCrypto reported that analyst CW8900 tracked stablecoin market capitalization falling from $270.3 billion on October 1 to $263.4 billion, a $6.9 billion decline. CW8900 said a return to net inflows would be needed for a rebound. Separately, PANews reported Sumcap data showing total stablecoin supply fell by $3.1 billion from October 28 to $298.5 billion. It was also down $5.2 billion from January 1. The datasets use different totals and should not be combined as one series. PANews said the decline began before the Binance hack.
The sentiment reading was also cautious. Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 26 on November 3, from 37 the day before, 48 a week earlier, and 65 a month earlier. This does not establish where prices will go, but it contrasts with Lee’s reading of limited downside as a bullish signal.
Prices for the assets below were lower at 11:13 UTC on November 3, according to CoinGecko. This is a snapshot, not a measure of the hack’s isolated effect.
| Asset | Price | 24-hour change | 7-day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $77,122 | -0.96% | -3.34% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,269.39 | -0.69% | -1.79% |
| BNB | $698.13 | -0.90% | -5.24% |
BeInCrypto reported that BitMine held 6,060,506 ETH after its purchase, equal to 4.9% of Ethereum’s 122.2 million supply. That is one company’s position, not evidence that the wider market shares Lee’s view.
Outlook: what to watch next
Relevant indicators include whether stablecoin supply turns upward, Binance’s withdrawal flows settle, and investigators or the exchange update information on recovered or frozen funds. Reuters reported the FBI’s attribution of the hack to North Korea; AP carried North Korea’s denial. Those statements do not resolve responsibility.
Lee’s case would look stronger if prices remained comparatively steady while liquidity returned. Continued stablecoin declines and low sentiment readings would instead suggest that muted initial price action may not reflect broad confidence. The evidence available here does not establish future prices. The hack and withdrawal figures also underline the risks associated with exchange security and custody.
FAQ
Does the Binance hack prove a bull market?
No. Lee sees the limited ETH decline as evidence of resilience, but one event’s price response cannot establish a bull market. Stablecoin declines and a Fear & Greed reading of 26 offer a more cautious view of liquidity and sentiment.
How much did Binance say the hack cost?
Binance estimated a $6.3 billion loss after its hot wallets were compromised on October 29, 2026. The exchange said it had set aside more than $6.34 billion to cover the stolen funds.
What would support a market rebound?
CW8900 said a shift in stablecoin flows back to net inflows could support a rebound. That is the analyst’s view, not a guarantee; market prices can still fall.
Sources
- Tom Lee Sees a Bull Market in the Binance Hack. Stablecoin Data Disagrees (BeInCrypto)
- Security Incident Update #2 (2026-10-30) | Binance Support (www.binance.com)
- Bitmine adds 8,573 ETH as Tom Lee flags muted Binance hack reaction (www.theblock.co)
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile; always do your own research before investing.
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