This article was first published on The Bit Journal.
The crypto market has seen an all-out storm of institutional adoption for XRP. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking XRP saw $789 million in cumulative inflows, making the token the biggest gainer among regulated crypto capital flows.
But despite all this money flowing in, $XRP price hasn’t done much beyond ticking around the $2 mark and failing to hold a breakout.
The lack of correlation between increasing demand for ETFs and a stagnant token price adds an interesting layer to the consideration of supply dynamics, investor sentiment, and whether this rush is real accumulation or superficial rotation.
By the Numbers: Inflows at Record Highs
Institutions have poured huge capital into the asset since the debut of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in mid-November. Net inflows to live spot XRP funds have now surpassed $700 million as at the start of December.
The number is above inflows into other crypto ETFs in the same period, including funds tied to other large-cap altcoins. $XRP is reportedly the only coin that has remained constant for accumulation in over ten consecutive trading days.
Some of the largest funds generating these inflows include issuers like Canary Capital (ticker: XRPC), Bitwise, Franklin Templeton and Grayscale.
For example, XRPC, the first XRP spot ETF to launch, got off to a strong start and soon brought in hundreds of millions in inflows.
Despite these massive inflows, $XRP’s price has not shared an equivalent up-trend. Instead, the token has been rather range-bound within the $2.00-$2.30 area.
Hence, If price is flat, why are institutions buying?
Why Price Isn’t Responding: Supply, Selling and ETF Mechanics
One big factor seems to be supply-side dynamics. Based on on-chain metrics and token balance, some existing holders and the large wallets have been trimming their positions as ETFs continue to build.
That is to say that purchases of ETFs may be met with outflows or sales elsewhere, which could prevent upward price pressure.
More concretely, many tokens may be shuttling from retail- or exchange-level wallets into ETF custody, essentially changing hands rather than creating new demand.
The move of coins from exchanges to custodians diminishes available “float” on the open markets, but that doesn’t necessarily imply new purchasing if holders stay the course or decide to divest put-launch profits.
Moreover, the $2.20-$2.30 zone appears to act as a stiff resistance in terms of technical. Even with the large inflow days, $XRP has been unable to break above this band multiple times.
Put simply, while ETF demand is signaling institutional interest, supply pressure and behavior of those who previously held the crypto may be watering down or negating the impact on prices, at least for now.
Price Predictions: What Experts See for XRP
Here is the latest expert price predictions for where XRP could be headed, going into 2026, depending on how ETF flows and market dynamics play out:
| Source | Short-Term Target | Medium-Term Target | Notes |
| Coin Edition (post-ETF) | $2.50-2.60 | – | Based on resistance-break projection if inflows continue. |
| BeInCrypto (technical + demand model) | $2.75-2.85 | $3.00 | Assumes ETF inflows subsume sell-pressure and supply drawdown persists. |
| AInvest (conservative scenario) | $2.40-2.55 | $2.70 | Assumes continued sideways movement with periodic inflows and no large sell-offs. |
These scenarios reflect varied assumptions. The outcome of the inflow and price split is extremely dependent on whether ETF purchasing results in net supply reduction or forces more outsized sales elsewhere.
XRP Bull, Base, and Bear Cases
Considering recent data and prospects:
In a bull case, sustained ETF inflows over the next several months, coupled with continued removal of supply from exchanges, could wipe out available $XRP in the secondary markets. Combine that supply contraction to renewed accumulations and market could see it rally towards $2.80-$3.00.
The base case assumes that what has been going on will keep going: ETFs continue to accumulate, but existing holders still distribute enough so the price stays relatively flat, but stable, an average of $2.40-$2.60 and occasional spikes and pullbacks.
In a bear case, if selling by early holders and heavy wallets accelerates or if ETF inflows abate under macroeconomic pressure, the price could consolidate near current levels or fall lower towards elevated $2.00-$2.20, despite persistent institutional demand.
Whichever plays out will largely be a function of whether ETF demand results in net supply being withdrawn, or if tokens are simply exchanged among large holders.
Conclusion
The latest XRP ETF surge describes an extraordinary inflow wave that saw spot XRP funds attract hundreds of millions as they far overshadowed other altcoin ETFs.
That surge represents real institutional interest and a change in where exposure to crypto is going. Still, price continues to stagnate in the $2.00-$2.30 bandwidth suggesting supply-side pressure and distribution from existing holders.
Glossary
Spot ETF – An ETF that directly owns the asset (in this case, XRP) instead of futures or derivatives.
Net Inflow – The sum of new capital that flows into a fund during a certain time frame.
AUM (Assets Under Management) – The sum of the entire market value of all assets managed by a fund.
Exchange Supply – Tokens that are currently held in centralized exchanges and can be traded or withdrawn.
Custodial Reserve – Tokens being held in custody, typically for ETFs and long-term holders and less accessible for trading.
Frequently Asked Questions About XRP ETF Surge
Why are so many investors piling into XRP ETFs?
Institutional investors are drawn to the compliance friendly, regulated structure of a spot ETF that removes custody and exchange risks while also providing clean fiat-to-crypto exposure through traditional brokerage channels.
Despite huge ETF demand, why has $XRP price failed to rise?
Despite ETFs buying up XRP in massive amounts, some of that demand was likely neutralized by some selling or redistribution on the part of current owners. Also, a moving into custody does not automatically reduce the available float, especially if there are still many holders willing to sell.
With the current flow of ETFs, could XRP hit $3 soon?
It could be possible, under optimistic assumptions: if inflows continue to hold up fairly strong and supply continues to siphon off of exchanges, market may see a continued trend upward toward $2.75-$3.00. But it relies greatly on a reduction in net supply, not just flows.
What could hold XRP down, even if ETFs continue to buy?
If big holders are selling again, or if larger macro-economic pressure weighs on risk assets, the inflows won’t negate outflows, and there could be price stagnation or slight declines.
References
CryptoSlate
BeInCrypto
Coin Edition
AInvest
CoinDesk
Ki Ecke
The price predictions and financial analysis presented on this website are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that prices can fluctuate significantly and unpredictably.
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